The “Idiot” in all of us throws curve balls, even when fastballs are required.
You can look at nature and see many of her processes and understand them to some extent. If you understand them well enough you can predict what those processes might do in the future..again only to an extent(always subject to chance-both natural, and organic.)
You can look at the natural economy and say that it is overblown. You can look at the natural economy and say that it grew too large too soon and may for this reason be somewhat unstable at its foundations.
You can look at the amount of money lent out and you may say that it will endanger the system if indeed the returns are not what they were expected to be.
You can look at an economy and say that too much risk was taken. That too many processes unleashed were not well understood or accounted for, and that there was not enough command over those processes unleashed to warrant their widespread, global use. You can say that these poorly understood processes were the cause of the economic downturn.
All this is “natural” and can be acertained by a reasonably well attuned organism.
What you cannot predict however is what an Idiot, or group of idiots will do when they also see the same natural reality unfold.
When a normal human being sees that the sea has pulled out, and knows from experience that it usually means a large wave is coming, they will seek high ground as quickly as possible. But not so the Idiot. The idiot will see the fish now exposed at the sea bottom and run to pick up the fish, thinking that an afternoon fish fry party is at hand. The idiot will not run for the hills, like an average person might do, but decide instead its a good time to taste all the local seafood, thinking that a beer or five or six would certainly go good with his meal when the party begins.
Of course, the party will never happen, but to the spotless mind that dark cloud is an eventuality not worth considering.
Point being that you can never ever predict what an idiot will do given a set of circumstances, and that is why it has taken so long for all this we see today to transpire.
Yes we could see that the natural economy was upset, and that this would lead eventually to dire ramifications, but we could never predict what devices an idiot or group thereof might do in light of such economic frailty.
In the end, a fool will throw a curveball, even when what he intends is a fastball straight up the middle. Habits, and ways of being, die hard.
P.S. I personally thought the Seattle Seahawks would have destroyed the New England patriots in the Super Bowl. They were- simply put- the better team by far.
However, no one could forsee five of their eleven defensive starters getting injured during the game. So is the nature of chance.
But worse than this, no one could ever see the idiot in play.
Pete Caroll, head coach of the Seattle Seahawks is arguably one of the premier coaches in football history being one of a very few who managed to win championships in both college and proffesional football. Who would expect that one of the great coaches in football would, on the last play of a championship game surrender the destiny of his team to one of his coaching assistants? That on the last play of the game that assistant would call a play in which a three year quarterback not particularly known for his precision throwing would be told to throw the ball into the heart of the New England defense at the goal line? Something not even a novice assistant coach would ever do!
Meanwhile the most powerful running back in the league-the Beast!- is waiting to carry the Seahawks to their second championship with a small one yard carry past a defense he absolutely decimated during the entire game! Who could predict this? Who can predict what an idiot will do in the face of adversity?
For this reason those who rightfully predicted the Seahawks would win their second championship in a row, had to eat crow, and for this same reason those who predicted that this economic system was supremely flawed, like Ron Paul has been doing for ages, had to wait a very long time to see the final effects of a monstrouly stupid economic policy unfold.
For in the end, no one can predict the actions of a fool, who, even when faced with a collosal losing streak at the black jack table on some particular day, will only double down on his bet, rather than just walk away and live to lose another day.
Yet, what we should all understand is that the “idiot” lives in all of us at one time or other. There will be a time when even the best of the best allow the primordial idiot to rise from the depths of their soul and lead the way to oblivion. The best we can hope for is to keep this fool contained for as long as possible thereby avoiding the worst of the worst.
The author is no stranger to the “idiot” residing in his soul either, and many, many a time has paid dearly for his own fool’s inadvertent appearance.